NIGERIA: 2014 WATCH LIST

Watchout below according to All Africa Global Media

  1. President Jonathan

Although he says he is yet to decide whether to run for other term in 2015, it seems most likely that President Goodluck Jonathan will be a candidate in the 2015 elections.  If he does run, on the platform of the PDP, which is fragmenting and exposing deep geo-political divisions. His party is already effectively a minority in the national legislature, and further defections will weaken it and confine its main support to his South-South zone and areas in the North where religious and ethnic pluralism are played up with potentially-dangerous consequences.

2.   Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)

The PDP is likely to undergo further fragmentation and more defections. It is unlikely to undergo the type of radical overhaul in its leadership guaranteed to reduce or reverse its internal problems. It will most likely provide President Jonathan with a ticket for 2015, and risk further alienation of support from the North and parts of South East and South-South.

3.  The opposition (APC)

The political opposition will make further incursion into PDP territory, but could be hurt by failure to manage sensitive intra-party developments.

4.    Judiciary

The judiciary will be dragged into some of the intense political quarrels arising from the fragmentation and defections in the PDP. The year 2014 will challenge the judiciary to redeem its poor image among Nigerians.

5.   INEC

Virtually all preparations for the 2015 elections will have to be concluded within 2014. INEC is facing a major crisis of credibility, although its leadership claims that bad politicians are painting it worse than it is.

6.   The Economy

The management of the economy is unlikely to see a radical improvement in 2014. With elections in 2015, patronage and leakages in the manner public finances are managed are likely to be more pronounced. Revenues from sale of petroleum resources will remain high, but industry-scale theft of crude will continue to deprive the nation of vital resources.

7.    Corruption and crimes

President Jonathan has not shown a strong will to fight corruption, and the general perception that too many of his closest associates, advisers and Ministers are beyond reproach on suspicion of corruption will deepen. The nation will watch how he responds to the scandal involving the purchase of bullet-proof cars and other scandals around pensions, petroleum subsidy and others. Anti-corruption agencies such as EFCC and ICPC will be assessed in terms of their capacities to operate with independence and integrity, rather than as political weapons to be deployed by the President against political opponents and threats

8.    Legislature

The National Assembly will go through turmoil as the changing political landscape is reflected in its membership and disposition. PDP will find itself in increasingly defensive position as it loses legislators to the opposition, and the legislature as a whole is likely to be more hostile to the executive. With 2015 in the horizon, however, both arms will focus more on saving political careers, making compromises and stocking-up on campaign resources.

9.    Insecurity

The federal government is unlikely to bring an end of the insurgency in the North East in 2014, going by current disposition and the words of the President.

Other internal security challenges may feed-off intense politicking and the exploitation of ethno-religious fault lines to deepen, or re-emerge. In 2014, national security will most likely be severely challenged.

10.    National Conference

The President appears bent on organizing a National Conference in 2014. In spite of widespread suspicion and hostility to the idea, most Nigerians will follow its deliberations and outcome with intense interest. The political

11.   And finally THE WORLD CUP

Nigeria will participate in the World Cup in Brazil in 2014. Most Nigerians expect it to do well. While the Eagles’ participation lasts in the tournament, it will give Nigerians one of those rare moments when they are only Nigerians.

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